As the 2024 Lok Sabha elections draw near, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) sets its sights on breaking its Kerala jinx and making a mark in the southern state where it has never won a parliamentary seat. The party has recently ramped up its campaign efforts, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi holding a successful roadshow in Thrissur followed by a massive women’s rally, signalling its determination to make inroads in this traditionally Left-dominated bastion.
While acknowledging the uphill battle ahead, the BJP is strategically focusing on a handful of seats that have shown promise in the past. These include:
- Thrissur: Actor-turned-politician Suresh Gopi’s star power and the party’s growing organizational presence offer hope for a potential BJP win here. Gopi’s impressive 28.2% vote share in the 2019 elections provides a strong foundation to build upon.
- Thiruvananthapuram: The BJP sees an opportunity to capitalize on the strong anti-incumbency sentiment against Congress MP Shashi Tharoor by fielding a formidable candidate, possibly veteran O Rajagopal who had garnered 32.32% votes in 2014.
- Pathanamthitta: The lingering resentment among Hindus over the Sabarimala temple issue could swing votes in the BJP’s favour in this constituency. The party’s 28.97% vote share in 2019 indicates a growing base of support.
- Attingal: Fielding a prominent leader from the influential Ezhava community could be the key to unlocking victory in Attingal. The BJP’s steadily increasing vote share, reaching 24.18% in 2019, suggests a receptive electorate.
Factors Boosting BJP’s Prospects:
- Rising Vote Share: The BJP’s vote share in Kerala has been steadily climbing, reaching 14.5% in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, nearly double the 2014 figure. This upward trend reflects the party’s effective organizational strategies and grassroots outreach efforts.
- Stronger Organizational Base: The BJP now has representation in 10 of the 115 assembly seats in Kerala, a significant improvement compared to the 2016 elections. This bolstered presence translates to better mobilization and campaign capabilities.
- National Appeal: Prime Minister Modi’s continued popularity and the BJP’s perceived strong governance at the Centre could resonate with some voters in Kerala, chipping away at the Left’s traditional stronghold.
