Economist Surjit Bhalla’s Forecast for BJP’s Performance in Lok Sabha Elections 2024

In an interview with NDTV, economist Surjit Bhalla predicted that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could win between 330 and 350 seats in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections. This outcome would surpass the party’s performance in the 2019 polls, where the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition secured 353 seats, including 303 for the BJP.

Bhalla, whose recent book “How We Vote” examines voters’ mindsets, suggested the BJP could see a five to seven per cent increase in seats compared to 2019. He emphasized the possibility of the party winning 330 to 350 seats on its own, excluding its alliance partners. He added that while the election could potentially be a wave election, it may not necessarily turn out that way.

Regarding the opposition’s potential seat count, Bhalla estimated that the Congress party might win around 44 seats, a decrease of about two per cent from its 2014 performance. He attributed the opposition’s difficulties to its leadership and the economic situation, both of which benefit the BJP.

Bhalla also predicted that the BJP could gain at least five seats in traditionally challenging areas like Tamil Nadu and one or two in Kerala. Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed similar optimism, stating that the party’s vote share in the south would likely increase in the 2024 elections compared to previous polls.