Political strategist Prashant Kishor has predicted a “massive advantage” for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. In an interview with RTV Andhra Pradesh, Kishor stated that while the BJP can never win 400 seats, their numbers are unlikely to decline significantly.
Kishor explained that for the BJP to lose its majority at the Centre, it would need to lose at least 100 Lok Sabha seats in North and West India without making any gains in the East and South. He emphasized that such a scenario is highly improbable.
Kishor detailed that in the East and South—covering Bihar, West Bengal, Assam, Odisha, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala—there are 240 Lok Sabha seats, of which the BJP currently holds fewer than 50. Despite this, the BJP manages to secure around 300 seats overall due to its strong performance in the North and West, where it holds about 260-270 seats.
According to Kishor, the BJP would need to lose 80-100 seats in the North and West to be ousted from power. This would require a combined effort from five key parties: the Congress, the Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar, and the NCP-Shiv Sena-Congress alliance in Maharashtra. These parties would need a strike rate of over 30% to challenge the BJP effectively.
Kishor expressed skepticism about the BJP losing 100 seats in the North and West. He pointed out that even if the BJP were to lose some seats in Rajasthan and Maharashtra, they would likely offset these losses with gains in the South and East, where their vote share is increasing.
While Prime Minister Narendra Modi has confidently predicted that the BJP will win over 370 seats and the NDA will secure more than 400 seats, Kishor’s analysis suggests that the BJP’s position remains strong. He concluded that the BJP is unlikely to face a significant decline in its numbers in the upcoming elections.
