Exit polls indicate that Mamata Banerjee’s strategy of straddling both the INDIA block and an independent stance may have confused voters, potentially reflected in the election results.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah made several visits to Bengal, which seem to have weakened the Trinamool Congress (TMC) campaign. According to projections from News18 Mega exit polls, the BJP appears to be outperforming the TMC in the Lok Sabha elections compared to the Assembly elections. The corruption cases against TMC leaders have also driven voters toward the BJP.
The Bengali pride that secured a victory for the TMC in the 2021 Assembly election appears to have diminished. If the exit poll predictions hold, the BJP’s slogan “Bangalir mone Modi” (Modi in the minds of Bengalis) has resonated, particularly in the southern constituencies, where the BJP is expected to make significant gains.
The TMC’s portrayal of the BJP as outsiders didn’t resonate with voters, especially since many TMC candidates were also outsiders, imported from Bihar, Gujarat, and Delhi. This undermined the TMC’s attempts to label the BJP as a party from the Hindi heartland with no roots in Bengal. Additionally, the TMC’s strategy of fielding popular sportspersons and television personalities, who lacked direct connections with the electorate, may have backfired. Voters likely sought representatives who could effectively voice their concerns in Parliament.
Furthermore, the disunity within the INDIA block in Bengal likely did not sit well with voters. The TMC failed to reach a seat adjustment with major INDIA block constituents, the Left and the Congress. Mamata Banerjee’s ambiguous stance, oscillating between full support for the INDIA block and an independent approach, coupled with her comments about providing ‘outside’ support to the INDIA block government, may have confused voters, as suggested by the exit poll projections.
