For July 2024, the country is expected to experience above-normal rainfall, exceeding 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA). Most regions will see normal to above-normal rainfall, except for many parts of northeast India, and some areas in the northwest, east, and southeast peninsular India, where below-normal rain is anticipated.
During July 2024, monthly minimum temperatures are expected to be above normal in many parts of the country. Exceptions include parts of northwest and central India, and some pockets of southeastern peninsular India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are likely. Maximum temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal in many parts of northwest and south peninsular India, except the west coast. Above-normal maximum temperatures are likely in many parts of central India, east and northeast India, and along the west coast.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are observed over the equatorial Pacific. Sea surface temperatures are above average in the equatorial western and central Pacific Ocean, and below average in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) indicates that La Niña conditions are likely to develop in the second half of the monsoon season.
At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest climate model forecasts suggest that these neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue throughout the monsoon season.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) will issue a forecast for rainfall during the second half of the season (August + September 2024) and for August towards the end of July 2024.
