As Bihar gears up for the 2025 Assembly elections, a recent survey conducted by C-Voter and aired by India Today TV has signaled potential challenges for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Once the undisputed leader of the state, Nitish now finds himself trailing in public preference, with only 18 percent of respondents backing him for another term. In contrast, the survey indicates that 41 percent of those polled favor Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav as their top choice for the chief minister’s post.
The findings reflect a significant shift in Bihar’s political landscape, with voters showing interest in alternative leaders. Prashant Kishor, the founder of Jan Suraaj, has emerged as a notable contender, securing 15 percent of the vote share in the survey. BJP’s Samrat Choudhary and LJP (RV) leader Chirag Paswan also found some support, with 8 percent and 4 percent of respondents, respectively, expressing a preference for them.
Although this particular survey did not provide seat projections, an earlier C-Voter analysis suggested that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP and JD(U), could still dominate Bihar’s Lok Sabha seats. According to those findings, the NDA was projected to win between 33 and 35 of Bihar’s 40 parliamentary constituencies, while the opposition ‘Mahagathbandhan,’ comprising the RJD and Congress, was estimated to secure only 5-7 seats.
The numbers from the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections add context to the evolving political dynamics. Back then, the RJD emerged as the single-largest party with 75 seats out of 243, while the BJP followed closely with 74. Despite trailing with just 43 seats, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) was able to form the government with the BJP’s backing. The Congress, a traditional force in Bihar, managed only 19 seats, while the LJP won just one.
Nitish Kumar’s tenure has seen both political realignments and governance challenges, making the upcoming elections a crucial test of his leadership. Over the years, he has switched alliances between the BJP and the RJD, a strategy that has often kept him in power but may now be testing the patience of voters. His government has been credited with improving infrastructure and law and order, but dissatisfaction over unemployment, migration, and economic concerns persists.
As election season approaches, Bihar’s political scene is set for an intense battle. The NDA continues to project Nitish Kumar as its leader, but with shifting voter sentiments, the opposition sees an opportunity to make significant gains. For the people of Bihar, the next few months will be critical in shaping the future of the state’s leadership.
