After over five decades of Assad family rule, President Bashar al-Assad has fled Damascus as rebel forces successfully breached the Syrian capital. This marks the end of the Alawite dynasty, which was established by Hafez al-Assad in 1970. Throughout his reign, Hafez maintained power by manipulating sectarian divisions, creating a regime that was heavily reliant on his leadership. Upon Hafez’s death in 2000, Bashar al-Assad inherited the presidency but failed to enact significant reforms, which led to widespread discontent and eventually to the 2011 uprising and subsequent civil war.
Rise of the Assad Dynasty
The Assad family’s grip on Syria began in 1970 when Hafez al-Assad, an Alawite, staged a military coup. Syria, a predominantly Sunni nation, had experienced political instability and numerous coups since its independence, and Hafez, as the commander of the Syrian Air Force and defense minister, consolidated his power. By promoting the Alawite minority in key military and government positions, he created a loyal base while deepening the divide between sectarian groups in the country. This strategy enabled him to secure his rule, though it also made the system highly dependent on his leadership.
Under Hafez’s regime, significant crackdowns occurred, including the 1982 Hama massacre, where tens of thousands of Muslim Brotherhood members were killed in an effort to suppress dissent. This brutal approach ensured that his authority went largely unchallenged.
Transition to Bashar al-Assad
After Hafez’s death in 2000, his son Bashar assumed power, following the sudden death of his elder brother Bassel. Early on, there were hopes that Bashar might introduce reforms and bring a more modern approach to governance. However, he continued his father’s authoritarian rule, and his government’s violent response to protests in 2011 sparked the Syrian civil war. What began as calls for reform quickly spiraled into a nationwide conflict.
Bashar’s administration became more insular, with key roles held by his family members. His brother Maher controlled military operations, his sister Bushra had influence in political matters, and his brother-in-law Asef Shawkat was in charge of security. Meanwhile, Bashar’s cousin, Rami Makhlouf, dominated Syria’s economy, controlling up to 60% of the nation’s wealth. Despite some economic growth, the majority of Syria’s population suffered from rising poverty, unemployment, and corruption.
Syria’s Struggles and Civil War
From 2000 to 2010, while Syria saw some economic growth, the wealth remained concentrated in the hands of a few, and conditions for the general populace worsened. A severe drought in the late 2000s pushed many rural Syrians into urban areas, exacerbating the growing dissatisfaction with the regime. This unrest, combined with the brutal repression of the 2011 protests, set the stage for the civil war that continues to this day.
The war, which began in Daraa with calls for reforms, has resulted in immense casualties and displacement. In 2024, the conflict reached a critical point as the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly linked to al-Qaida, led a series of offensives that brought them closer to Damascus.
The Fall of the Assad Regime
Reports indicate that Bashar al-Assad fled Syria early on Sunday as opposition forces entered Damascus, marking a pivotal moment in the civil war. This is the first time rebel forces have reached the Syrian capital since 2018. According to Rami Abdurrahman of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Assad reportedly left by flight. The advance of opposition fighters followed the capture of Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, which had seen government forces retreat.
In response to the rapid developments, neighboring countries have started to close their borders with Syria. Lebanon has closed all but one crossing with Syria, while Jordan also restricted its border access. As the Assad regime crumbles, Syria faces an uncertain future, with the conflict showing no signs of a swift resolution.
