BJP Eyes Kerala Breakthrough in 2024 Lok Sabha Elections

As the 2024 Lok Sabha elections draw near, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) sets its sights on breaking its Kerala jinx and making a mark in the southern state where it has never won a parliamentary seat. The party has recently ramped up its campaign efforts, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi holding a successful roadshow in Thrissur followed by a massive women’s rally, signalling its determination to make inroads in this traditionally Left-dominated bastion.While acknowledging the uphill battle ahead, the BJP is strategically focusing on a handful of seats that have shown promise in the past. These include:

• Thrissur: Actor-turned-politician Suresh Gopi’s star power and the party’s growing organizational presence offer hope for a potential BJP win here. Gopi’s impressive 28.2% vote share in the 2019 elections provides a strong foundation to build upon.
• Thiruvananthapuram: The BJP sees an opportunity to capitalize on the strong anti-incumbency sentiment against Congress MP Shashi Tharoor by fielding a formidable candidate, possibly veteran O Rajagopal who had garnered 32.32% votes in 2014.
• Pathanamthitta: The lingering resentment among Hindus over the Sabarimala temple issue could swing votes in the BJP’s favour in this constituency. The party’s 28.97% vote share in 2019 indicates a growing base of support.
• Attingal: Fielding a prominent leader from the influential Ezhava community could be the key to unlocking victory in Attingal. The BJP’s steadily increasing vote share, reaching 24.18% in 2019, suggests a receptive electorate.

Factors Boosting BJP’s Prospects:

• Rising Vote Share: The BJP’s vote share in Kerala has been steadily climbing, reaching 14.5% in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, nearly double the 2014 figure. This upward trend reflects the party’s effective organizational strategies and grassroots outreach efforts.
• Stronger Organizational Base: The BJP now has representation in 10 of the 115 assembly seats in Kerala, a significant improvement compared to the 2016 elections. This bolstered presence translates to better mobilization and campaign capabilities.
• National Appeal: Prime Minister Modi’s continued popularity and the BJP’s perceived strong governance at the Centre could resonate with some voters in Kerala, chipping away at the Left’s traditional stronghold.