Russia’s Refinery Outages Open Market Gaps
Ukraine has intensified drone strikes on Russian refineries and pipelines, significantly reducing Moscow’s ability to produce petrol and diesel. This forced Russia to restrict exports in September by nearly 200,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to global analytics firm Kpler. The curbs led to fuel shortages in parts of Russia and higher prices at petrol stations.
Russia’s move to prioritize domestic fuel needs has opened space for new suppliers. India, which has emerged as a key refining hub, quickly expanded shipments to some of Russia’s largest traditional buyers.
India Ramps Up Exports to Brazil, Turkey, and UAE
According to energy trade data, India’s refined product exports to Brazil surged to 97,000 bpd in September, up from just 40,000 bpd a month earlier. Exports to Turkey rose to 56,000 bpd, compared to only 20,000 bpd in August. Most of these supplies came from Reliance, while Nayara re-entered these markets after years of absence due to EU restrictions on its sales.
India also boosted shipments to the UAE, sending 201,000 bpd in September compared to 140,000 bpd in August. Smaller increases were recorded for Egypt and Togo, while exports to the US, Singapore, and Australia declined.
Overall, India’s refined product exports jumped 14% in September to 1.59 million bpd compared to the previous month, highlighting its rising role in global fuel trade.
Strategic Shift in Global Energy Trade
The disruption of Russian exports is reshaping global fuel flows. Brazil and Turkey, once heavily dependent on Russian diesel, are now turning to India as a reliable supplier. Analysts say this shift reflects India’s growing influence as an energy exporter at a time of geopolitical uncertainty.
“That’s exactly the kind of backfill you’d expect when Russian diesel and gasoline pull back,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst at Kpler. He noted that Indian refiners are taking advantage of the opportunity to capture new markets.
Geopolitical Context
Ukraine’s strategy of targeting Russian energy facilities is designed to weaken Moscow’s oil and gas revenue streams, which have continued despite Western sanctions. While crude oil availability has increased for global buyers, refined fuel shortages remain acute.
At the same time, the US has urged India to reconsider its crude imports from Russia, linking it to broader trade negotiations. However, India maintains that its energy imports are guided by economic and security needs.
