Why energy dominates the agenda
Energy is at the centre of this visit. Discounted Russian crude has already become a major pillar of India’s oil procurement in recent years, reshaping import patterns and pushing Moscow to the top of New Delhi’s supplier list. Official trade databases and government analyses show Russia’s crude exports to India grew sharply from a marginal share before 2022 to a significant proportion of total imports by 2024.
Indian refiners have relied on competitively priced Russian barrels while payments have moved away from traditional dollar channels into a mixed system dirhams, rupees and yuan following partial financial restrictions on some Russian entities. These arrangements and proposals for long-term supply contracts are expected to be discussed.
Defence deliveries and maintenance
Defence cooperation remains the second pillar. Much of India’s existing frontline hardwarefighters, submarines, tanks and air-defence systems has Russian origins. New Delhi is expected to seek concrete timelines for delayed deliveries, assurances on maintenance and possible upgrades for systems such as the S-400, while longer-term projects like technology transfers and co-production will be explored.
Payments, currency and trade imbalance
Financial mechanics underpin the partnership. India and Russia have experimented with alternative settlement routes to bypass sanctions-related frictions; reports indicate a surge in rupee accounts and efforts to settle more trade in national currencies. Russian banks and financial institutions are also actively encouraging rupee-based trade and deferred payment mechanisms to rebalance the heavy energy-led trade deficit.
Possible agreements and economic outreach
Officials expect a package of agreements across energy, nuclear cooperation, pharmaceuticals, and transport connectivity. New Delhi’s official schedule and External Affairs Ministry statements ahead of the summit flag multiple cooperation areas, with an eye on expanding Indian exports to Russia beyond the present narrow basket.
Diplomatic balancing act
India’s policy remains one of strategic autonomy: deepening ties with Moscow without severing growing partnerships with the United States, European partners and other Indo-Pacific countries. Washington’s pressure over New Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil including recent tariff threats frames much of the international attention on this visit. New Delhi’s challenge is to secure fuel and defence needs while managing diplomatic costs.
What to watch for
- Signed memoranda on long-term crude contracts or investments in Russian energy projects.
- Delivery timelines or service agreements for major defence systems.
- New payment mechanisms or steps to operationalise rupee/dirham settlements.
- Agreements on space and nuclear cooperation that lay groundwork beyond immediate deals.
Putin’s two-day visit will not only test bilateral pragmatism but also India’s ability to manage competing geopolitical pressures while safeguarding supply chains for energy and defence that New Delhi deems critical to national security.
For the official state visit announcement, see the Ministry of External Affairs release. For detailed trade data on crude imports, refer to government trade statistics and analysis.
