Why the Base Year Revision Matters
Base year revisions are undertaken periodically to reflect changes in economic structure, introduce improved estimation techniques, and integrate new and more reliable data sources. Unlike routine annual revisions that only update data, base year revisions recalibrate the entire framework of national income accounting.
FY 2022-23 has been chosen as the base year as it represents a relatively normal post-pandemic year with comprehensive and robust sectoral data. Officials stated that the revision enhances coverage, improves granularity, and refines the deflation strategy for better real growth assessment.
FY 2025-26 Growth Projections
According to the Second Advance Estimates under the new series, India’s real GDP at constant prices is projected to reach ₹322.58 lakh crore in FY 2025-26, compared to ₹299.89 lakh crore in FY 2024-25. The real GDP growth rate is estimated at 7.6% for FY26, slightly higher than 7.1% recorded in FY25.
Nominal GDP at current prices is estimated at ₹345.47 lakh crore in FY26, marking an 8.6% growth over ₹318.07 lakh crore in FY25. Real Gross Value Added (GVA) is projected at ₹294.40 lakh crore, reflecting a growth of 7.7%.
Quarterly Performance Highlights
In the third quarter (October–December) of FY 2025-26, real GDP is estimated at ₹84.54 lakh crore, up from ₹78.41 lakh crore in the same quarter last year, registering a growth rate of 7.8%. Nominal GDP for Q3 stands at ₹90.91 lakh crore, indicating 8.9% growth year-on-year.
Real GVA for Q3 FY26 is pegged at ₹77.38 lakh crore, compared to ₹71.77 lakh crore in Q3 FY25. The quarterly data suggests consistent economic momentum across sectors.
Sectoral Trends and Drivers
Under the revised estimates, the Primary sector recorded a growth of 4.9% in FY25, while the Secondary sector grew by 8.0% and the Tertiary sector by 7.9%. Manufacturing, construction, mining, financial services, and real estate emerged as key growth drivers.
The revised methodology uses improved data sources, including GST data, corporate financial results, banking statistics, and updated agricultural and industrial production data. The manufacturing sector now applies a double deflation method for greater accuracy.
Methodological Improvements
The new GDP series adopts the Proportional Denton method for benchmarking, replacing the earlier pro-rata approach. It also introduces item-level deflators based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), improving real value estimations.
Quarterly estimates now follow guidelines from the IMF’s Quarterly National Accounts Manual (2017). Enhanced data coverage from institutions such as RBI, MCA, NABARD, and state-level directorates has improved precision.
Back Series and Future Releases
MoSPI has indicated that comparative tables between old and new series for FY 2022-23 to FY 2024-25 are available on its official website. Detailed methodology papers and annexures have also been published for transparency.
The Provisional Estimates for FY 2025-26 along with Q4 data (January–March 2026) will be released on May 29, 2026, as per the advance release calendar.
The new GDP series is expected to provide policymakers, economists, and investors with a more accurate and comprehensive picture of India’s evolving economic landscape.
