New Delhi, India – India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, 73, appears poised for a rare third term, likely to be re-elected with a thumping majority, according to exit polls released on Saturday evening. These polls indicate Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could surpass its performance in the 2019 elections, despite challenges like widening inequality, record-high unemployment, and rising prices.
If the official results due Tuesday, June 4, confirm these predictions, Modi will make history as the first prime minister in independent India to win three consecutive Lok Sabha elections with improved numbers each time.
At least seven exit polls from Indian media organisations forecast the BJP and its allies winning between 350-380 seats out of 543 in the Lok Sabha, India’s lower house of Parliament.
Despite the exit poll predictions, the opposition INDIA alliance – comprising over two dozen political parties aiming to unseat the BJP’s Hindu majoritarian government – remains confident of securing a majority on counting day.
While exit polls in India have a mixed record, they generally capture broader trends accurately. Nearly a billion Indians participated in the seven-phase elections, which concluded on Saturday evening.
“Modi is extraordinarily popular. Everything about this BJP campaign was about Modi for a reason,” said Neelanjan Sircar, a senior fellow at the New Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research (CPR). “Certain narratives suggested dissatisfaction with the government, but translating that into seats was always challenging.”
While the INDIA alliance is projected to perform well in southern states, most exit polls suggest the BJP might achieve surprising gains there too. Some polls predict the BJP could win two to three seats in Kerala and one to three seats in Tamil Nadu, where it previously had no representation.
The BJP and its allies are expected to retain their seats in Karnataka and could emerge as the largest winner in Telangana. This would mark a significant setback for the opposition Congress party, which leads the INDIA alliance and recently won state elections in Karnataka and Telangana.
“The gains in the south are surprising and predictions suggest a massive gain,” said political commentator Asim Ali. “Even if the BJP doesn’t get as many seats as predicted, the rise in their vote share is significant.”
Meanwhile, the BJP is expected to sweep its stronghold states, including Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh. The opposition alliance might make marginal gains in Bihar, Rajasthan, Haryana, and Punjab.
Modi’s re-election campaign focused heavily on portraying him as a saviour of the Hindu majority, countering what the BJP framed as an opposition conspiracy to benefit Muslims. The opposition attempted to highlight issues of social justice and equality, resonating with some voters.
However, Modi’s popularity appears to have prevailed. “A large section of society can only imagine Modi as a leader today,” said Sircar of the CPR. “The BJP owes its success to Modi’s popularity.”
Zafar Islam, a national spokesperson for the BJP, said the exit polls reflect voters’ appreciation of the BJP’s governance model, welfare schemes, and Modi’s vision.
“The ease of living has improved under Modi’s leadership, and we look forward to a historic verdict,” he told Al Jazeera.
In Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest state, the BJP is predicted to win more than 65 out of 80 seats, an increase from the last election. Following the exit poll release, Modi stated that the opposition alliance “failed to strike a chord with the voters.”
“Through the campaign, they only enhanced their expertise on one thing – Modi bashing. Such regressive politics has been rejected by the people,” he wrote on X.
If the election results mirror the exit polls, India faces another five years under the centralized leadership of Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. “This BJP only knows one way of working: a government where power is entirely centralized at the top,” noted Sircar.
