The AI-driven forecasts were sent via SMS through the m-Kisan platform, ensuring accessibility even in rural areas. Unlike conventional forecasts, these predictions are tailored to local farming needs, highlighting critical weather events such as rainfall pauses or early onset of continuous rains.
This year, the monsoon arrived earlier than usual but stalled mid-season in the north for 20 days. The AI-based system accurately identified this pause and provided weekly updates to farmers, helping them manage agricultural risks and adjust their Kharif operations accordingly.
AI Revolution in Weather Forecasting
Since 2022, AI models have significantly improved the accuracy of weather predictions globally. MoAFW leveraged this technology using a combination of Google’s Neural GCM and ECMWF’s Artificial Intelligence Forecasting Systems (AIFS). Evaluations showed these models outperformed other available forecasts, particularly in predicting monsoon onset at the local level.
Professor Ramesh Chand of Niti Aayog emphasized the importance of farmer-centric weather information: “Tailored, easy-to-understand forecasts enable farmers to make informed decisions, reducing crop losses and improving productivity.”
Collaborations and Expert Insights
The program was developed in collaboration with the Development Innovation Lab – India and Precision Development, involving direct engagement with farmers to ensure the messages were actionable. During a review meeting at Krishi Bhavan on September 8, Additional Secretary Dr. Pramod Kumar Meherda and Joint Secretary Shri Sanjay Kumar Agarwal discussed program outcomes with Nobel Laureate Professor Michael Kremer of the University of Chicago.
Professor Kremer praised the initiative: “This program is a model for people-first AI applications, empowering millions of farmers and demonstrating India’s leadership in agricultural innovation.”
Adapting to Climate Change
With increasing climate variability, accurate weather forecasts have become critical for farming decisions. Joint Secretary Shri Sanjay Kumar Agarwal highlighted that AI forecasts help farmers adapt to changing patterns, mitigating risks from erratic rainfall and extreme weather events.
The initiative represents a major step forward in using technology to directly benefit India’s agricultural sector, reinforcing MoAFW’s commitment to climate-smart farming solutions.
Global Recognition and Future Plans
This AI-based forecasting program positions India as a global leader in integrating advanced technology into agriculture. The Ministry plans to expand and refine the initiative, leveraging feedback from farmers and continued AI advancements to provide even more precise and actionable forecasts in the coming years.