A poll of polls, calculated by averaging six major exit surveys, projects the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance winning around 132 seats, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 114 in the 227-member BMC. Individual polls by Axis My India, JVC and Sakal all point towards a strong performance by the Mahayuti.
Axis My India has projected the alliance securing between 131 and 151 seats, while JVC estimates around 138 wards. Sakal’s projection, though slightly lower, still gives the BJP-led front a clear edge with about 119 seats. In contrast, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) and Raj Thackeray’s MNS alliance is estimated to remain well short of the majority mark.
Thackeray Cousins’ Reunion Fails to Deliver
The much-anticipated reunion of Uddhav and Raj Thackeray after nearly two decades appears unlikely to yield electoral dividends. According to Axis My India, the Shiv Sena (UBT)-MNS combine may secure between 58 and 68 seats, a significant decline from the Sena’s historical dominance in the BMC.
The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation has traditionally been a Thackeray stronghold since 1985, barring a brief interlude in the early 1990s. However, the 2026 exit polls suggest that the political landscape in Mumbai has decisively shifted, with the BJP emerging as the single largest force.
Voter Trends: Youth and Women Back BJP
Exit poll data reveal that the BJP-led alliance performed particularly well among young and aspirational voters. Nearly 47 percent of voters aged 18–25 and 41 percent in the 26–35 age group are estimated to have backed the ruling coalition.
Women voters also showed a clear preference for the Mahayuti, with around 44 percent support, compared to significantly lower backing for the opposition alliances. Among students and unemployed voters, the BJP and its allies also held a marginal but crucial edge.
Senior Voters and Civic Issues
The only demographic segment where the Shiv Sena (UBT) showed a narrow advantage was among senior citizens above 61 years of age. Even here, the margin remained slim, highlighting the overall consolidation in favour of the BJP-led alliance.
Interestingly, exit polls indicate that civic issues dominated voter concerns more than identity politics. Drainage emerged as the top issue for 31 percent of voters, followed by sanitation at 20 percent and lack of drinking water at 18 percent, underscoring growing public demand for urban governance reforms.
Administrative Arrangements and What Lies Ahead
The Maharashtra State Election Commission has appointed 23 Election Decision Officers for Mumbai’s municipal wards, with secure strong rooms and counting venues finalised. The results are expected to set the tone for Maharashtra’s political trajectory ahead of upcoming state and national contests.
Reacting to the exit poll trends, BJP leaders claimed the verdict reflected a loss of connect between the Thackeray leadership and the city’s evolving electorate. Opposition parties, however, have urged caution, stressing that exit polls are not final results.