French President Emmanuel Macron announced on Friday that François Bayrou, leader of the centrist party MoDem, will become France’s new Prime Minister in 2024. Bayrou, a seasoned political figure and close ally of Macron, has been tasked with navigating the country through its second significant political crisis in six months.
Bayrou’s immediate priority will be securing the passage of a special law to extend the 2024 budget, followed by the challenging task of addressing the 2025 budget legislation in early 2025. This issue had previously led to the downfall of former Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government due to opposition in parliament.
Although Bayrou, 73, is expected to announce his cabinet soon, he will likely face similar challenges as Barnier in managing legislation within a fragmented parliament, which consists of three conflicting political blocs. Bayrou’s association with the widely unpopular Macron may also make his leadership more vulnerable.
The political instability in France has raised concerns about whether Macron will complete his second presidential term, which ends in 2027. This uncertainty has also led to rising borrowing costs for the country and created a power vacuum in Europe at a time when global political tensions are on the rise.
Following Barnier’s departure, Macron reached out to various political factions, excluding Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally and the hard-left France Unbowed, to gain support for Bayrou. However, the involvement of the Socialist Party in any coalition may complicate Macron’s efforts, with some advisers suggesting it could come at a significant cost to next year’s budget.
Macron will hope that Bayrou can prevent any no-confidence motions until at least July, when France can hold a new parliamentary election. If the government collapses again before then, Macron’s future as president could be called into question.
Bayrou, who has previously run for president three times, is also known for his long tenure as the mayor of Pau in southwestern France. Despite a brief resignation as justice minister in 2017 amid an investigation into alleged fraudulent party employment, Bayrou was cleared of all charges earlier this year. His leadership will soon be put to the test with the critical 2025 budget bill, as the National Assembly remains divided and difficult to govern, particularly following Macron’s snap election in June.
The previous budget plan, led by Barnier, was met with strong opposition from both the far-right and the far-left due to its harsh austerity measures, further straining France’s political situation and leading to higher borrowing costs.
