In a move charged with deep emotion and strategic calculation, India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan following the brutal massacre of 26 people in Pahalgam by Pakistan-sponsored terrorists. This marks the first time in over six decades that India has put the treaty in abeyance, a pact once hailed as a rare example of cooperation despite hostile relations.
The Indus Basin holds immense significance for Pakistan, supplying around 76% of its water and irrigating 80% of its farmland. This system forms the backbone of Pakistan’s agriculture and food production. India’s decision, therefore, carries not only diplomatic weight but also the potential to reshape the region’s future in profound ways. Yet, despite the suspension, India’s immediate ability to stop the flow of water is constrained by its current infrastructure, built over the decades with limited scope due to the treaty’s restrictions.
The origins of the Indus Waters Treaty trace back to 1960, when, under World Bank mediation, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan’s General Ayub Khan agreed to share the waters of the Indus River system. India was granted rights over the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — while Pakistan received the larger share, with control over the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. While the treaty was designed to promote cooperation, many in India have long felt it was disproportionately generous to Pakistan, a sentiment that has deepened over the years, especially as acts of cross-border terrorism continued unabated.
Despite possessing significant hydroelectric potential, especially in the Himalayan regions, India’s usage of the western rivers has remained minimal, largely confined to small-scale hydropower projects. The suspension of the treaty now opens the possibility for India to explore new projects without the burden of prior notification or inspection by Pakistani officials. However, experts caution that building large dams and storage facilities is a time-consuming process, often taking between five to ten years due to the complex terrain and regulatory hurdles.
At present, India’s storage capacity on the western rivers is less than one million acre-feet — a fraction compared to what would be needed to dramatically alter the water flow to Pakistan. Ongoing and planned projects such as the Kishanganga, Ratle, Pakal Dul, and Kiru dams, while critical, are mostly run-of-the-river designs, limiting their ability to withhold large volumes of water.
In the wake of the Pahalgam attack, India’s resolve seems firmer than ever. The government has initiated a three-pronged strategy aimed at short-, mid-, and long-term solutions to enhance water retention and utilization. This includes expediting the construction of existing projects and planning new reservoirs along the Indus system. Furthermore, India has officially conveyed its demand to amend the treaty, citing changing energy needs and demographic pressures — a request Pakistan has previously ignored.
There is also growing conversation around India’s legal right to exit the treaty altogether, a move permitted under international law in cases of a material breach. If pursued, this could dramatically shift the balance of water rights in South Asia. Nevertheless, New Delhi appears mindful of the humanitarian implications and the complexities involved, choosing a cautious yet determined path forward.
The decision to suspend the treaty is both a message of defiance against continued terrorism and a statement of India’s sovereign right to safeguard its resources and its people. It reflects a nation’s deep anguish and resilience in the face of provocation, and a quiet determination to rewrite the terms of engagement with its neighbour — not through aggression, but through strategic assertion of its rights over its own rivers.
As India charts this new course, the coming years will test its engineering capabilities, diplomatic finesse, and commitment to balancing national interest with regional stability. What is certain, however, is that the waters of the Indus now carry with them not just life for millions, but also the hopes of a nation seeking justice and self-respect in a turbulent neighbourhood.
