Market Recap: RBI Policy Boosts Sentiment
On Friday, Indian equities ended in the green after the RBI’s policy stance reassured investors. The Sensex climbed 266 points to close at 83,580, while the Nifty 50 gained nearly 51 points to settle at 25,693. Both indices registered weekly gains, indicating a shift toward a more constructive near-term trend.
Global markets also provided support, with Asian peers trading firm and volatility easing across risk assets. India VIX declined sharply during the week, reflecting reduced fear and improving risk appetite among traders.
Sensex Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
Technically, the Sensex formed a bullish weekly candle, though a visible upper shadow suggests intermittent profit booking at higher levels. Analysts believe the index is currently consolidating before attempting a decisive breakout.
Immediate support is seen in the 82,900–83,100 zone, with stronger support placed near 82,500. On the upside, the 84,000–84,200 band remains a critical resistance area. A sustained move above this zone could confirm a broader trend reversal and open the door for higher targets.
The index is holding above its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, which continues to reinforce the medium-term bullish structure.
Nifty 50: Bullish Structure Strengthens
Nifty 50 has emerged as the stronger of the two benchmarks, forming a solid bullish candlestick on the weekly chart and closing decisively above its 20-week EMA. This signals a positive shift in the medium-term trend.
On the daily chart, the index has created a hammer-like formation after a corrective phase, hinting at a potential upside reversal. The partial gap created earlier this month remains unfilled, which analysts interpret as a possible runaway gap formed during an ongoing uptrend.
If Nifty sustains above 25,800, it could gradually move toward the 26,000 mark, followed by 26,350 in the near term. Immediate support lies around 25,500, while a deeper correction may find buyers near 25,250.
Momentum indicators have also turned supportive. The Relative Strength Index has rebounded from oversold levels and moved above 50, reflecting improving strength.
Bank Nifty: Buy-on-Dips Strategy Favoured
The Bank Nifty index closed marginally higher at 60,120, forming a narrow-bodied candle with a long lower shadow. This price action indicates demand emerging at lower levels and responsive buying by market participants.
Immediate resistance is placed in the 60,300–60,400 range. A sustained breakout above this zone could push the index toward 60,800 and 61,200 in the near term. On the downside, the 20-day EMA near 59,700 is expected to act as a strong support.
The index continues to trade above its key short- and medium-term moving averages, reinforcing the improving momentum in banking stocks.
Market Strategy for Investors
Overall market structure suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook. Analysts recommend a buy-on-dips approach as long as Nifty 50 holds above key support zones. Large-cap stocks are expected to attract continued long-term interest, while volatility remaining low may further aid bullish sentiment.
However, investors are advised to remain alert to global cues and manage risk carefully, particularly near key resistance levels.
