The immediate trigger for the sell-off was heightened geopolitical uncertainty after reports of US military action in Venezuela, a country holding some of the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves. The situation raised concerns about potential disruptions in global oil supply and sharp swings in crude prices.
Oil-linked stocks, particularly refiners, came under pressure as investors assessed the possible impact of rising feedstock costs and volatility in energy markets. Reliance, with its significant oil-to-chemicals (O2C) operations, became a key focus during the sell-off.
Reliance Clarifies on Russian Oil Reports
Adding to the volatility were reports suggesting that multiple vessels carrying Russian crude oil were heading towards Reliance’s Jamnagar refinery. The company, however, categorically denied these claims.
In a statement shared on social media platform X, Reliance termed the reports “blatantly untrue,” clarifying that it has neither received Russian crude in the past three weeks nor expects any such deliveries in January. The clarification helped calm some concerns but failed to reverse the broader market sentiment.
Strong 2025 Performance Still Intact
Despite the recent correction, Reliance remains one of the best-performing blue-chip stocks. In 2025, the shares gained over 29%, significantly outperforming the benchmark Sensex, which rose around 9% during the same period.
Market experts point out that such corrections are not unusual after sharp rallies, especially in large-cap stocks that attract heavy institutional participation. The broader trend, they say, continues to remain positive.
Analysts View: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain
According to market analysts, the US-Venezuela conflict represents a short-term sentiment headwind rather than a fundamental threat to Reliance’s business. The company’s diversified presence across energy, telecom, retail, and digital services offers a natural hedge against volatility in any single segment.
Experts note that higher crude prices, if driven by supply disruptions, could even benefit complex refiners like Reliance, which can process discounted heavy and sour crude grades. Any tightening in global fuel supplies may support refining and marketing margins.
Consumer-facing businesses such as Jio and Reliance Retail remain largely insulated from crude price swings. Continued growth in subscriber additions, improving average revenue per user (ARPU), and rising consumer demand are expected to drive earnings momentum.
Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
From a technical perspective, analysts caution that the stock may see further short-term volatility. Reliance has slipped below its short-term moving averages and is currently testing support near the 50-day moving average.
A decisive break below this level could lead to a deeper retracement towards the ₹1,460–₹1,480 range. However, as long as the stock holds above its long-term averages, the broader uptrend remains intact.
Is This a Buying Opportunity?
Most brokerages maintain a positive long-term outlook on Reliance Industries, advising investors to view sharp declines as potential accumulation opportunities rather than panic triggers. Analysts stress that the recent fall is largely sentiment-driven and not backed by any deterioration in earnings or cash flows.
Investors are advised to track global geopolitical developments, crude oil trends, and technical support levels while taking a staggered approach to buying. Long-term fundamentals, experts believe, continue to support the stock’s growth story.