New Delhi: In a significant move aimed at modernising India’s official industrial statistics, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) has released Discussion Paper 3.0 on the seasonal adjustment of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and invited public feedback from stakeholders.
Why Seasonal Adjustment Matters
The Index of Industrial Production is one of India’s most closely watched high-frequency economic indicators, offering monthly insights into the performance of the manufacturing, mining and electricity sectors. However, industrial output is often influenced by seasonal factors such as festivals, weather conditions, agricultural cycles and variations in the number of working days.
Until now, India has not officially published seasonally adjusted IIP figures. Users including economists, policymakers, financial institutions and researchers were required to independently adjust raw data using their own tools and assumptions. This often led to differing interpretations of industrial trends.
Discussion Paper 3.0: What It Proposes
MoSPI’s Discussion Paper 3.0 outlines a proposed methodology to systematically remove seasonal and calendar effects from IIP data. The objective is to present a clearer picture of underlying industrial momentum, allowing users to better assess short-term fluctuations and long-term trends.
The paper is part of MoSPI’s broader base revision exercise of the IIP series. As part of this process, the ministry is revisiting existing methodologies, evaluating new data sources and incorporating structural changes in India’s industrial landscape.
Consultative and Transparent Approach
The ministry has emphasised that the proposed framework is not final and will be shaped through extensive consultations. Views and suggestions have been invited from experts, academicians, Central government ministries and departments, State governments, financial institutions and other stakeholders.
This consultative approach reflects MoSPI’s effort to align India’s statistical practices with international best standards, while also addressing the specific characteristics of the domestic economy.
Implications for Policymaking and Markets
Seasonally adjusted IIP data can significantly improve policy analysis and economic decision-making. By filtering out predictable seasonal variations, policymakers can better judge the effectiveness of industrial policies and respond more accurately to emerging slowdowns or accelerations.
For financial markets, cleaner and more comparable data reduces uncertainty and helps investors interpret industrial signals with greater confidence. International investors, in particular, often rely on seasonally adjusted indicators to compare economic performance across countries.
Accessing the Paper and Submitting Feedback
The Discussion Paper 3.0 is available on the official MoSPI website at www.mospi.gov.in. Stakeholders can submit their comments and suggestions via email to iipcso[at]nic[dot]in.
MoSPI has set February 12, 2026, as the deadline for receiving feedback. The ministry is expected to review the inputs carefully before finalising the methodology and deciding on the future publication of seasonally adjusted IIP series.
Step Towards Stronger Economic Statistics
The release of Discussion Paper 3.0 marks an important step in strengthening India’s official statistical system. As the economy grows more complex and data-driven policymaking becomes essential, refinements such as seasonal adjustment are critical to ensuring accuracy, transparency and credibility.
By inviting open feedback, MoSPI has signalled its intent to build consensus and trust around one of the country’s most important economic indicators, potentially reshaping how industrial performance is measured and understood in the years ahead.
